How Fred won the debate.

Senator Fred Thompson has already won tonight's Republican debate, and he isn't even participating. Last week I was upset by the idea that Fred was going to officially announce the day after the debate, avoiding 90 minutes of questions with seven other candidates. But as I watch the news today and think about it a little more, the timing of Thompson's announcement and his lack of participation in the debate was a skillful political move.

Turn on the news today and watch the pre-date commentary. The seven debate participants are all lumped together... and then there's Fred. The Thompson campaign will run an ad sometime before or during the debate, and will pre-announce on the Tonight Show with Jay Leno. The Tonight Show will be watched by around 5.7 million views or about 31% of the audience during its time slot. The debate will likely get somewhere between 2-3 million viewers when it airs. Surely Fred Thompson will be seen by more people, and won't have to share his camera time with seven other adversarial candidates.

Ever more important, Fred Thompson's appearance on the Tonight Show this evening allows him to be the first to comment after the debate. Tricky, yes, since the show is filmed before the debate, so he won't be able to discuss specifics. But I expect to hear a few one-liners and general comments about the debate as Fred once again separates himself from the pack.

As long as Fred continues to make the distinction between himself and everyone else, he will have an advantage. As long as the media discusses Fred, and then everyone else... that advantage will remain. And as conservatives get to know him and his values, that advantage should grow. Fred Thompson has never wavered on abortion unlike the frontrunners. Fred Thompson is strong on defense and against illegal immigration. As people get to know him more, I believe they will be reminded of another actor who was underestimated by his opponents and did things a little differently... who just happened to become the greatest President in recent history.